Old Orchard, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

891
FXUS61 KGYX 151856
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
256 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak pattern with low pressure offshore will support humid
conditions and hit and miss showers this evening and again
Friday afternoon and evening. through Friday. Unsettled weather
continues for the weekend as a more robust system brings
widespread showers and thunderstorm chances by Saturday Night.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Clouds have steadily lifted north capping temps for southern
counties particularly where seabreeze has kicked in. With
moisture pooling we are seeing hit/miss showers with instability
sufficient enough to support a few bolts of lightning. Once
daytime heating ends all shower activity will cease. Another
weak upper ridge moves over the area, leading to a lull in
activity and more stable conditions overnight. As a result,
expect stratus and areas of fog to develop after dark,
particularly near the coast. Visibilities could drop to 1/2 mile
or less at times, so locally dense possible. Fog will be less
impactful inland, but will expect some reduction in
visibilities. Clouds and humidity levels will keep lows in the
50s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Stratus/fog will dissipate through morning, though clouds are
likely to linger longer near the coast while breaking inland by
late morning. High temperatures will be mainly in the 70s and a
bit muggy. With the area remaining moist and warm in the wake
of a warm front passage, additional showers and thunderstorms
will be possible late afternoon and evening as that weak upper
ridge and its associated subsidence depart to the east. The
progression of the warm front could serve as a focus for
convective initiation, and any storms that do form could produce
locally heavy rainfall. Forcing overall looks modest with
ridging not far away no notable shear. Thinking it will be just
unsettled with scattered to widespread showers, primarily in
the afternoon with a few thunderstorms mixed. PWATs have
increased to around 1.25-1.5" with surface dewpoints in the
upper 50s to low 60s, supporting some good rain makers and if
movement is slow there could be some spotty accumulations around
1". Showers diminish in coverage with the loss of daytime
heating Friday Night, but still cannot rule out some light
showers through the night. Mild pattern continues with low to
mid 60s for lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Points:

-Rainy weekend ahead, with most consistent rainfall expected
 from heavy showers Saturday afternoon.

-Showery conditions on Sunday with widespread light rain north of
the mountains.

-Showery weather wraps up Monday evening, with a drier
Tuesday/Wednesday.

-Unsettled weather returns for the end of next week.

Details:

An upper-level low moves across New England on Saturday. A dying
surface low looks to bring a couple rounds of showers across
northern New England on Saturday. The first round exits the region
Saturday morning, with showers generally pretty spotty in nature as
the associated occluded front falls apart.

As the low moves closer, another round of showers associated
with a stronger occluded front develop to the west, moving into
New Hampshire by the afternoon. These showers are more
organized, and may move across NH and ME quickly. Guidance is
still a bit uncertain on the timing, with the ECMWF indicating
an earlier arrival and the NAM suggesting showers arrive later
on in the evening. Areas that see repeat activity could
accumulate 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, but the majority of the
region will see amounts around an inch. Flooding is not expected
at this time.

Sunday, the center of the low moves across northern NH and ME,
allowing for more light rain Sunday with some showers also making
down to the rest of NH and Maine. The low may hover over NH and ME
for a while, continuing the showers possibly through Monday evening.

Conditions should dry out at least a little by Tuesday as the
aforementioned low moves off into the Atlantic. The end of the week
may feature unsettled weather as another upper-level low moves in
from the southwest.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...Hit/miss showers this evening expected to skirt
most airports but given their spotty coverage they are not
likely to cause impacts at terminals. Coverage will drop off
after dark when a stratus/fog deck builds in overnight. IFR to
LIFR conditions likely at most terminals, with dense fog at RKD
and near 1/2sm conditions at nearby airports.

Long term...Restrictions may be down during showers, a few
thunderstorms and rain that will be moving through the area
Saturday through Monday. At this time, the best chances to see
reduced restrictions look to arrive Saturday evening as a front
moves across the NH and ME.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Latest obs show SE winds 5 kt with seas >2 ft this
afternoon. Light winds expected through tonight, supportive of
more fog. Similar pattern expected Fri, SE 5 kt early
increasing to S at 10 kt. Fog conditions likely to linger under
humid conditions into Friday night.

Long Term...Southeasterly flow at 8-14kts expected on Saturday.
A low moves across the area, shifting winds to the southwest at
7-10kts by Sunday. As the low continues to move out to sea,
winds shift to northwesterlies at 11-17kts by Monday, with winds
staying there through Wednesday morning. Seas of 2-4ft are
expected Saturday through Wednesday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jamison
LONG TERM...Palmer